The rise of Nepali Maoists in Nepali politic after 13th year of civil war.
Short Summary
Since its formation in 1994, the United
Communist Party of Nepal (Maoists) has gone through a number of radical
transformations, shifting from a guerrilla warfare unit to a key democratizing
force within Nepali politics. The party’s early history is defined by its role
in launching the ‘people’s war’ of 1996, a decade-long civil war that resulted
in the loss of some 16 000 lives and halted the country’s economic development.
The Maoists’
original aim was to benefit the poor and marginalized sectors of Nepali society
by uprooting the monarchy and feudalism.
Today, many people
question the necessity of the war. But the conflict did succeed in providing marginalized
populations particularly dalits (the so-called untouchables), women, the
landless and ethnic and indigenous people — with a wider political space to
articulate their grievances. The result was a series of protests and rights
movements across the country by the Madhesi (people from the Tarai lowland) and
ethnic populations. Such incidents have in turn facilitated the democratization
of Nepali politics. In the first Constituent Assembly election of April 2008,
minorities gained substantial representation for the first time in Nepali
history, with dalits receiving over 8.17 per cent of seats, women 33.22 per cent, ethnic and
indigenous people 33.39 per cent, and Madhesis 34.09 per cent.
The Maoists have
also achieved two other key victories. Following their entrance into peaceful
politics in 2006, the Maoists gained the largest number of votes in the April
2008 Constituent Assembly election, winning 220 out of 575 elected seats. But
their biggest achievement so far has been the overthrow of the monarchy in
2008. Many analysts maintain that the Maoist-initiated war sped up this outcome
by at least a few decades.
Yet the Maoists
have failed to make progress on other key matters. Despite the impressive
political developments, the Constituent Assembly failed to
produce the new constitution it was originally tasked with writing, and its
dissolution has left the country in a political and constitutional
deadlock.
However, the
prospects for a new constitution remain high for a number of reasons. First,
the major political parties have recently
agreed to form an election government led by the chief justice
of the Supreme Court. This government is expected to hold a free and fair
election by June this year for a new constituent assembly. Second, pressure
from civil society for a new constitution continues to increase. Finally, the
international community — mainly the US, the European Union, India and China —
is advising the major political parties to take action. The key challenge from
here on will be to achieve consensus on disputed issues, such as models of
federalism and governance mechanisms.
Another daunting
challenge for the Maoists relates to Nepal’s stagnant economy. While many Asian
countries including China, India and Vietnam are experiencing unprecedented
economic growth, Nepal is still one of the least developed countries in the
world with a per capita GDP of US$ 624 and unemployment rate of 46 per cent. Gratitude of
this harsh reality is probably behind the Maoists’ recent plan for an economic
revolution in the country, which they announced at the 7th Party Congress. This
is a big shift for a once guerrilla-based party.
Yet there is
continuing uncertainty over whether they can accomplish this mammoth task. This
is partly because some of the party’s cadres are still seeking to resolve
disputes with violence. The party underwent a split after
a protracted intra-party dispute into two factions, between a large
‘establishment’ group supporting multi-party democratic politics, and a small
’dissident’ group embracing radical politics using violence in pursuit of a
‘people’s democracy’. This split will certainly diminish their voter base for
the next election. The Maoists have also failed to address the peoples’ growing
aspiration for change despite having occupied the premiership position twice.
This perceived failure, albeit attributed partly to the workings of coalition
governments, has triggered widespread fear among the public that the Maoists
will become yet another Nepali political party that reneges on its commitments
for change.
Since the end of the civil war, the Maoists have gradually shifted their ideology toward one that embraces democratic values and norms. This development, coupled with the growing watchdog function of civil society, signals sound prospects for democracy in Nepal. The future course of democratization in Nepal is unclear. But it is evident that the Maoist party’s future successes will be measured against its promise to uplift the lives of the poor and transform the Nepali economy.
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